Last Friday, May 1st, Negros Oriental downgraded its quarantine from ECQ to GCQ – well sort of. I described the very strict ECQ requirements in this blog.

Most of the Province welcomed the GCQ. It meant that most people could go back to work; a necessity for Filipinos. Most stores and businesses re-opened, albeit with restrictions. On Monday the 4th, the malls re-opened and that’s when the shit hit the fan.

Robinsons Mall, where we do most of our shopping had never completely closed. Throughout the ECQ the supermarket was open, the pharmacy was open, sometimes the hardware store was open, and a couple fast food places were open for take out. But that was it. Janet and I were in the mall Sunday and could see most of the stores had staff inside cleaning and disinfecting, preparing for the Monday re-opening.

Janet and I were wise enough to know that Monday would be crowded as hell and we didn’t want to deal with that. After all, for many Filipinos it would be the first time they could work in a month or more, and for most residents it would be the first time they could shop other than for essential food and medicine. Apparently Janet and I were wiser than the leadership.

Pictures were posted all day of traffic in Dumaguete and crowded malls and social distancing not being done or enforced. By late Monday many were calling for something to be done and some were even calling for a return to ECQ. This is what panic does to us.

As I say Janet and I skipped Monday and returned to Robinsons Tuesday. Like most people, there were many things we hadn’t done in the previous month and we were anxious to do them. Our experience was nothing like the complaints from Monday. The traffic was normal, the mall was not crowded, the mall parking lot had plenty of spaces, and people calmly socially distanced. To be honest I was happy and really impressed.

But this didn’t matter since the decision had already been made based on that one day. The pass system, which allowed only 1 person per family to go into Dumaguete to shop, was reinstated for non-residents. The pass system for Dumaguete residents (color coded) was also reinstated. The pass is necessary not just to get through traffic checkpoints but to get into malls and markets.

They also unfortunately reinstated the restrictions on seniors 60+. We are supposed to stay home. The only exceptions are that a senior who works can get a pass and a senior who lives alone can get a pass for essential needs.

So for me, after a few days of freedom, I’m back to lockdown mode. Well, not entirely. My attitude has shifted a bit. For over a month I absolutely followed the rules. But at this point I figure since they can’t determine what the rules are, I can bend them just a bit. Last night Janet and I drove into Valencia town to hit my fave taco cart; take out of course. I threw on my cap, thinking if I covered my mostly bald and grey head I’d look younger lol. I saw several other old farts, so I didn’t feel very conspicuous. Never have I been so happy to watch someone make me a fajita. I thanked them profusely and gave a bigger than normal tip. We got home and I inhaled the fajitas. Sometimes it’s the little things.

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Most people who know me know that I am a watch guy. In retirement that means inexpensive (aka cheap) watches. I have a G-Shock or two and saw a new model that I liked. March 1st I went online where many Lazada vendors were selling the model I wanted. The prices were all over the map. No surprise since most G-Shocks in the Philippines are fake. I messaged a couple vendors who messaged back, “Authentic Sir.” Yeah right. In the end it’s a G-Shock and plastic and who cares so I ordered one. March 9th it hit Manila and went through customs, where it’s been ever since. This morning I got a message from NinjaVans, my fave delivery service. It’s on its way a mere two months late. Just like the Fajita, never have I been so happy to get a cheap fake watch!

Of course it came from China, so I sanitised the shit out of it first before putting it on! Happy locked up guy!

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Now, let’s segway to the serious stuff. I was a math guy when I was young. I was not only good at doing the math I was pretty good at understanding the concepts. Never has math and statistics been as important as in this pandemic and the experts, who may be expert doctors, or experts at getting elected aren’t very good with math.

Let’s face it; nearly all of us panicked at first because the statistics were showing that 3-6% of Covid-19 positive patients were dying. That was based on the number of deaths divided by the early positive test numbers, based on little testing. And it’s true that 3+% death is scary.

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Today initial antibody testing shows that in all likelihood millions of Americans (and everywhere else) have had Covid-19. In NY State the antibody testing indicated 21% of the residents have had it, whether they knew it or not. Depending on your outlook that can be good or bad news. Bad because it indicates what was only speculated; that Covid-19 is very infectious. Good because if you divide the deaths by the actual number of people who have had the disease we now can be confident that the percentage or mortality rate is much lower than previously thought; perhaps as low as .1%. That certainly does not help those who have died, but it does help those of us worried to know that if we get the disease our chance of dying is not 3-6% but closer to 1/1000. You have to wonder if we knew from the start this reality, would our decision to lockdown the world have been the same?

The other piece of statistical information that no one seems to be talking about is this. We have been told from the get go that seniors and those with other medical issues are far more likely to die than younger or middle aged people. This certainly makes perfect sense. Who is likely to do better: a healthy 30 year old or a falling apart 80 year old?

But that’s not the full story. Today I heard international statistics on the percentage of total Covid deaths in nursing homes. IOW deaths in nursing homes divided by the total death count.

Canada – 62%; Australia – 25%; Denmark – 33%; France – 51%; Germany – 36%; Ireland – 60%; Israel – 32%; Portugal – 40%; Sweden – 45%; and the USA – 58%.

Yes, you read that right; 58% of the total Covid-19 deaths in the US have occurred in nursing homes and assisted living facilities! Try to get your head around the 58% statistic. And what is the conclusion of the experts? Seniors do badly with Covid-19 and we should protect them.

That’s not how I interpret the statistics. My interpretation? Seniors thrown into cramped shitholes don’t do well.

Unfortunately, such an admission breaks the self-delusional narrative of most Western countries: that we maintain our elderly in clean, medically well-maintained and staffed facilities, comparable to 5-star hotels, where our beloved parents and grandparents can interact with other like-minded oldsters.

How do I know the above narrative is bullshit? Because no senior anywhere, anytime ever wanted to go into a nursing home.

As I was approaching retirement, my mind turned to images of what retirement (if I could afford to retire) might be like. Never once did I think, ‘oooh, when I hit 70 I’ll go into one of those nursing homes, where I can play shuffleboard and chase the nurses.’ Like most seniors I thought, ‘I’d rather be dead than shoved into one of those shitholes.’

As I prepared to retire in the Philippines, Janet and I discussed my aging often. It was always, ‘the family will take care of you and if we need help we can hire a live-in nurse.’ And that’s what we’ll do.

So, the Covid-19 pandemic has at times shown off the best of humanity and at times the worst. And how we in the West treat our seniors has been exposed as the worst.